Market Summary
from Briefing.comIndustry Watch
Strong: Industrials, Telecom Services, Financials, Energy, Materials
Weak: Real Estate, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Staples
- European markets end lower
- Dollar and longer-term yields rise
- October durable orders increase 4.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.1%); excluding transportation, durable orders rise 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%)
- Heavily-weighted technology underperforms
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the pre-holiday affair on a flat note despite a deluge of economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.1%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%). It is also worth noting that the domestically-oriented Russell 2000 (+0.5%) extended its winning streak to a 14th consecutive session.
The major averages diverged at the start of the session as the heavily-weighted technology (-0.5%) and health care (+0.4%) spaces slipped down the sector leaderboard. Meanwhile, another rapid increase in market rates kept "yield play" groups --utilities (-0.9%), real estate (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.6%)-- under pressure.
Market rates were on the rise after the latest raft of economic data came in largely above consensus. The Durable Orders report signaled that headline orders jumped 4.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.1%) while orders excluding transportation increased 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). The data marked the fourth consecutive month of growth, adding support to the rate hike argument.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's November meeting were also supportive of a rate hike in December. The minutes indicated that most committee members felt that it may soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the fed funds rate. Some FOMC members also argued that rates should be hiked at the December meeting to preserve the central bank's credibility. Per the CME's FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of an interest rate hike at the December meeting is unchanged at 93.5%.
The benchmark index settled just north of its flat line, marking another incremental record high. Seven sectors settled in positive territory with industrials (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.8%), and financials (+0.6%) leading the pack.
Heavy machinery names outperformed in the industrial sector (+0.8%). The group led after Deere (DE 102.17, +10.16, +11.0%) topped consensus estimates for the fourth quarter and issued upbeat sales guidance for the first quarter and full-year 2017. Peer and Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 96.18, +2.56m +2.7%) finished at the top of the price-weighted average. The broader sector has gained 8.7% so far this month.
The financial sector (+0.6%) continued its recent winning streak as banking names outperformed once again. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 40.95, +0.22, +0.5%) has surged 18.1% in November on the back of steepening in the yield curve, which improves the earnings prospects for banks. The broader sector has gained 13.2% in November, leaving the group up 15.3% for 2016.
In the technology space (-0.5%), large cap tech names underperformed. Microsoft (MSFT 60.40, -0.72) and Alphabet (GOOG 760.99, -7.28) finished lower by 1.0% apiece. Meanwhile, HP (HPQ 14.87, -1.08) tumbled 6.8% after issuing cautious first-quarter guidance. However, the company did report in-line results for the fourth quarter.
The health care sector (+0.4%) finished in positive territory after biotechnology rebounded from steep opening losses. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 283.84, +2.48, +0.9%) sank 2.5% after Eli Lilly (LLY 68.00, -7.99, 10.5%) announced that its Alzheimer's drug, solanezumab, failed to reach the primary endpoints in its clinical trial.
Treasuries ended on a broadly lower note as yields jumped across the curve. The yield on the 2-yr note finished up four basis points at 1.13% while the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note also rose four basis points to 2.36%.
Today's trading volume was below the recent average of one billion as fewer than 808 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, weekly initial claims, Durable Orders for October, the FHFA Housing Price Index for September, New Home Sales for October, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for November:
Tomorrow, bond and equity markets will be closed for Thanksgiving while Friday's session will end at 13:00 ET. Two pieces of economic data will be released Friday with October International Trade in Goods and October Advance Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) each crossing the wires at 8:30 ET.
The major averages diverged at the start of the session as the heavily-weighted technology (-0.5%) and health care (+0.4%) spaces slipped down the sector leaderboard. Meanwhile, another rapid increase in market rates kept "yield play" groups --utilities (-0.9%), real estate (-0.7%), and consumer staples (-0.6%)-- under pressure.
Market rates were on the rise after the latest raft of economic data came in largely above consensus. The Durable Orders report signaled that headline orders jumped 4.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.1%) while orders excluding transportation increased 1.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). The data marked the fourth consecutive month of growth, adding support to the rate hike argument.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's November meeting were also supportive of a rate hike in December. The minutes indicated that most committee members felt that it may soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the fed funds rate. Some FOMC members also argued that rates should be hiked at the December meeting to preserve the central bank's credibility. Per the CME's FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of an interest rate hike at the December meeting is unchanged at 93.5%.
The benchmark index settled just north of its flat line, marking another incremental record high. Seven sectors settled in positive territory with industrials (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.8%), and financials (+0.6%) leading the pack.
Heavy machinery names outperformed in the industrial sector (+0.8%). The group led after Deere (DE 102.17, +10.16, +11.0%) topped consensus estimates for the fourth quarter and issued upbeat sales guidance for the first quarter and full-year 2017. Peer and Dow component Caterpillar (CAT 96.18, +2.56m +2.7%) finished at the top of the price-weighted average. The broader sector has gained 8.7% so far this month.
The financial sector (+0.6%) continued its recent winning streak as banking names outperformed once again. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 40.95, +0.22, +0.5%) has surged 18.1% in November on the back of steepening in the yield curve, which improves the earnings prospects for banks. The broader sector has gained 13.2% in November, leaving the group up 15.3% for 2016.
In the technology space (-0.5%), large cap tech names underperformed. Microsoft (MSFT 60.40, -0.72) and Alphabet (GOOG 760.99, -7.28) finished lower by 1.0% apiece. Meanwhile, HP (HPQ 14.87, -1.08) tumbled 6.8% after issuing cautious first-quarter guidance. However, the company did report in-line results for the fourth quarter.
The health care sector (+0.4%) finished in positive territory after biotechnology rebounded from steep opening losses. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 283.84, +2.48, +0.9%) sank 2.5% after Eli Lilly (LLY 68.00, -7.99, 10.5%) announced that its Alzheimer's drug, solanezumab, failed to reach the primary endpoints in its clinical trial.
Treasuries ended on a broadly lower note as yields jumped across the curve. The yield on the 2-yr note finished up four basis points at 1.13% while the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note also rose four basis points to 2.36%.
Today's trading volume was below the recent average of one billion as fewer than 808 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, weekly initial claims, Durable Orders for October, the FHFA Housing Price Index for September, New Home Sales for October, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for November:
- The MBA Mortgage Index indicated that mortgage applications rose by 5.5% in the week ending November 19. This followed a 9.2% decline in the prior week.
- Initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 for the week ending November 19 to 251,000 (Briefing.com consensus 243,000).
- Continuing claims for the week ending November 12 increased by 66,000 to 2.043 million.
- Durable orders for October surged past estimates, jumping 4.8% (Briefing.com consensus 1.1%), thanks to a 12.0% spike in transportation orders.
- Excluding transportation, durable orders increased 1.0% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) on top of an unrevised 0.2% increase in September.
- The FHFA Housing Price Index for September rose 0.6%, which followed an increase of 0.7% in August.
- Sales of new single-family home sales declined 1.9% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000 from a revised September rate of 574,000 (from 593,000).
- The October reading was lower than the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 587,000.
- The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for November increased to 93.8 (Briefing.com consensus 91.6) from the preliminary reading of 91.6.
- The sentiment index jumped 8.2 points after the election, leaving the index 6.6 points above its level from October.
Tomorrow, bond and equity markets will be closed for Thanksgiving while Friday's session will end at 13:00 ET. Two pieces of economic data will be released Friday with October International Trade in Goods and October Advance Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) each crossing the wires at 8:30 ET.
- Russell 2000: +18.1% YTD
- Dow Jones: +9.5% YTD
- S&P 500: +7.9% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: +7.5% YTD
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Economic Data
from Briefing.com| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/19 | +5.5% | NA | NA | -9.2% | |
| Nov 23 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/19 | 251K | 245K | 243K | 233K | 235K |
| Nov 23 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/12 | 2043K | NA | NA | 1977K | |
| Nov 23 | 08:30 | Durable Orders | Oct | +4.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | +0.4% | -0.1% |
| Nov 23 | 08:30 | Durable Orders, Ex- Transportation | Oct | +1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Nov 23 | 09:00 | FHFA Housing Price Index | Sep | +0.6% | NA | NA | 0.7% | |
| Nov 23 | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Oct | 563K | 580K | 587K | 574K | 593K |
| Nov 23 | 10:00 | Michigan Sentiment - Final | Nov | 93.8 | 91.8 | 91.6 | 91.6 | |
| Nov 23 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/19 | -1.255M | NA | NA | 5.274M | |
| Nov 23 | 12:00 | Natural Gas Inventories | 11/19 | -2 bcf | NA | NA | 30 bcf | |
| Nov 23 | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | Nov 2 | NA | NA | NA | ||
| Nov 25 | 08:30 | International Trade in Goods | Oct | NA | NA | -$56.1B |
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Technical Update
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE19083.18 +59.31 (+0.31%)
Volume: 77.88 Mil below average of 96.77 Mil
Range: 19000.38 - 19083.76
S&P500 INDEX
2204.72 +1.78 (+0.08%)
Volume: 523.78 Mil below average of 618.65 Mil
Range: 2194.51 - 2204.72
DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
9000.04 +88.56 (+0.99%)
Volume: 11.35 Mil below average of 17.52 Mil
Range: 8909.1 - 9003.67
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
5380.680176 -5.67 (-0.11%)
Volume: 1616.74 Mil below average of 1870.80 Mil
Range: 5350.680176 - 5380.680176
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Market Internal
NYSE :Lower than average volume @ 810.3M vs 923.5M
Advancers outpaced Decliners(adv/dec): 1476M/1448M
New highs outpaced low(high/low): 259/36
NASDAQ :
Lower than average volume @ 1605.2M vs 1848.0M
Advancers outpaced Decliners(adv/dec): 1634M/1140M
New highs outpaced low(high/low): 363/34
Advancers outpaced Decliners by 1.20 to 1 on lower volumes 2415.5 ( -12.85%) than avg 2772 (-0.21%)
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX) :
12.43 +0.02 (+0.16%)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.comBonds
Treasuries Recoup Some of Their Early Losses
- U.S. Treasuries took a drubbing this morning after the Durable Goods Orders report for October showed very strong growth but the market bottomed in late morning and the yield curve flattened for the rest of the day. While durable goods data was better than expected, new home sales came up short in October and that will weigh on Q4 U.S. real GDP growth estimates. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is at 3.6%, unchanged from November 17. The 7-year Treasury auction was met with strong demand and stopped through by 1.6 basis points. In central bank news, Reuters reported that the ECB is considering broadening its collateral requirements for short-term repurchase agreements to loosen up money markets in the eurozone. That announcement sent eurozone debt tumbling in the early morning. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.60% to 101.65 and the S&P 500 is down 0.03% to 2,202.3
- Yield Check:
- 2-yr: +4 bps to 1.14%
- 5-yr: +5 bps to 1.83%
- 10-yr: +4 bps to 2.36%
- 30-yr: +2 bps to 3.02%
- News:
- U.S. durable goods orders grew 4.8% m/m in October, beating the Briefing.com consensus of 1.1%. September's growth was revised up to 0.4% from -0.1%
- Durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 1.0% in October (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). September's change was +0.2%
- U.S. sales of new homes ran at a 563K seasonally adjusted annual rate in October, missing the Briefing.com consensus for a 587K SAAR. The prior reading was 593K
- The final reading of Michigan Sentiment index for November was 93.8, above both the Briefing.com consensus of 91.6 and the second estimate of the same value
- Current Conditions: 107.3, 105.9 prior
- Expectations: 85.2, 82.5 prior
- The FHFA Housing Price Index rose 0.6% in September (6.1% y/y) after growing 0.7% in August (6.4% y/y)
- Initial jobless claims climbed to 251K for the week ending November 19 from 233K in the prior week. The Briefing.com consensus was 243K
- Continuing jobless claims jumped to 2043K from 1977K
- $28 bln 7-year Treasury auction
- High yield: 2.215% (1.6-basis point stop-through)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.68
- Indirect bid: 72.7%
- Direct bid: 9.4%
- The New York Fed has changed what it means to be a "primary dealer." The capital requirement for non-bank broker-dealers has been lowered to $50 mln from $150 mln. For bank broker-dealers, the requirement has been increased to $1 bln of Tier 1 capital from $150 mln
- Primary dealers are now required to make two-way markets in Treasuries
- Reuters reported today that the European Central Bank is planning to ease its collateral rules that allow commercial banks to get short-term funding from the central bank
- U.S. durable goods orders grew 4.8% m/m in October, beating the Briefing.com consensus of 1.1%. September's growth was revised up to 0.4% from -0.1%
- Commodities:
- WTI crude: -0.06% to $48.00/bbl.
- Crude Inventories fell by 1.26 mln barrels for the week ending November 19 after increasing by 5.27 mln in the prior week
- Gold: -1.96% to $1,187.4/troy oz.
- Copper: +2.87% to $2.6175/lb.
- WTI crude: -0.06% to $48.00/bbl.
- Currencies:
- EUR/USD: -0.71% to 1.0555
- USD/JPY: +1.28% to 112.50
- Data out Friday:
- International Trade in Goods (08:30 ET)
- Advance Wholesale Inventories (08:30 ET)
Currencies
Commodities
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Preview: Friday, 25 November 2016
Economic Data
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | 08:30 | International Trade in Goods | Oct | NA | NA | -$56.1B | ||
| Nov 25 | 08:30 | Advance Wholesale Inventories | Oct | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.2% |
Other Events of Interest
Earnings
Commentary
-
Direction for 25 November 2016: UP
Direction for 25 November 2016: UP
No comments:
Post a Comment