Market Summary
from Briefing.comIndustry Watch
Strong: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Telecom Services, Technology
Weak: Energy, Financials
- Another quiet session expected: equity market to close at 13:00 ET and bond market will close at 14:00 ET
- Dollar Index inches away from 13+ year high
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market endured a lazy, upward drift on Friday to end the abbreviated post-holiday session on a modestly higher note. The S&P 500 added 0.4%, extending its weekly advance to 1.4%. The benchmark index will enter the final three days of the month with a November gain of 4.1%.
To little surprise, the day after Thanksgiving was very uneventful for equities, as the bulk of the action unfolded in the first and last 30 minutes of the trading day. The benchmark index opened with a four-point gain and built on its advance during the home stretch. Trading volume was particularly low with fewer than 400 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Ten of eleven sectors ended the day with gains, paced by relative strength in utilities (+1.4%), telecom services (+1.1%), and consumer staples (+0.8%). Most cyclical sectors registered modest gains, but energy (-0.4%) bucked the trend as crude oil retreated.
Rate-sensitive utilities finished in the lead, even though moderate selling in the Treasury market resulted in higher yields. Despite the advance, the sector remains at the bottom of the November leaderboard, showing a decline of 5.1%.
For its part, the consumer staples sector also shows a November loss (-3.1%), but like utilities, the staples sector settled among today's leaders. Wal-Mart (WMT 71.22, +0.39) was among the sources of relative strength, rising 0.6%, after ChannelAdvisor reported that third party sellers on the Wal-Mart website saw a 39.7% year-over-year surge in sales.
Understandably, today's market-related news was limited to reports surrounding the retail sector, but investors will have to wait until next week to get a better feel for how retailers did during the Thanksgiving weekend. Last evening, Adobe Digital Insights estimated that as of 17:00 ET on Thursday, online sales totaled $1.15 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 13.6%. The news was insufficient to keep online retail giant Amazon (AMZN 780.22, +0.10) among today's outperformers despite an upbeat start. Amazon settled flat while the broader discretionary sector (+0.3%) ended just behind the broader market.
On the downside, the energy sector (-0.4%) spent the entire session in negative territory, pressured by crude oil, which dropped 3.2% to $46.41/bbl. Shortly before the close, Bloomberg reported that Monday's meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers has been cancelled, adding another wrinkle to the ongoing supply cut saga.
The Treasury market will remain open until 14:00 ET, but a quiet finish is expected, considering the 10-yr note holds just a slim loss, sending its yield higher by one basis point to 2.36%.
Today's economic data was limited to International Trade in Goods and advance Wholesale Inventories:
The stock market extended its winning streak to three consecutive weeks with the S&P 500 rising 1.4% to mark a fresh all-time high. Not to be outdone, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.5%), Nasdaq (+1.5%), and Russell 2000 (+2.3%) also registered weekly gains and marked new record highs during the holiday-shortened week.
Treasury yield have been on a big post-election run, but selling in the bond market eased up a little during the past week. The 10-yr yield edged up to 2.36% from last Friday's 2.34%. Interestingly, the modest uptick in the benchmark yield did not stop rate-sensitive sectors from receiving some inflows. Post-election laggards like telecom services (+4.6%) and utilities (+1.9%) had a better showing than the broader market during the past week.
Things were a bit more mixed on the cyclical side where only three sectors outperformed the broader market. The energy space (+2.2%) rallied as OPEC members continued playing ‘Deal or no Deal' while the consumer discretionary sector (+2.3%) benefitted from expectations for a better than feared holiday shopping season. Industrials (+2.3%) also outperformed, largely thanks to shares of Deere (DE), which surged in reaction to above-consensus results and an upbeat outlook.
It is worth noting that market participants received the policy minutes from the November FOMC meeting during the past week, but the release did not invite a particularly strong reaction. The minutes acknowledged that the Fed is ‘relatively close' to raising rates, which was universally received as a sign of a rate hike coming in December. The market had been anticipating this type of a statement, evidenced by the limited movement in the fed funds futures market, which projects a 93.5% implied likelihood of a rate hike in three weeks.
To little surprise, the day after Thanksgiving was very uneventful for equities, as the bulk of the action unfolded in the first and last 30 minutes of the trading day. The benchmark index opened with a four-point gain and built on its advance during the home stretch. Trading volume was particularly low with fewer than 400 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Ten of eleven sectors ended the day with gains, paced by relative strength in utilities (+1.4%), telecom services (+1.1%), and consumer staples (+0.8%). Most cyclical sectors registered modest gains, but energy (-0.4%) bucked the trend as crude oil retreated.
Rate-sensitive utilities finished in the lead, even though moderate selling in the Treasury market resulted in higher yields. Despite the advance, the sector remains at the bottom of the November leaderboard, showing a decline of 5.1%.
For its part, the consumer staples sector also shows a November loss (-3.1%), but like utilities, the staples sector settled among today's leaders. Wal-Mart (WMT 71.22, +0.39) was among the sources of relative strength, rising 0.6%, after ChannelAdvisor reported that third party sellers on the Wal-Mart website saw a 39.7% year-over-year surge in sales.
Understandably, today's market-related news was limited to reports surrounding the retail sector, but investors will have to wait until next week to get a better feel for how retailers did during the Thanksgiving weekend. Last evening, Adobe Digital Insights estimated that as of 17:00 ET on Thursday, online sales totaled $1.15 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 13.6%. The news was insufficient to keep online retail giant Amazon (AMZN 780.22, +0.10) among today's outperformers despite an upbeat start. Amazon settled flat while the broader discretionary sector (+0.3%) ended just behind the broader market.
On the downside, the energy sector (-0.4%) spent the entire session in negative territory, pressured by crude oil, which dropped 3.2% to $46.41/bbl. Shortly before the close, Bloomberg reported that Monday's meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers has been cancelled, adding another wrinkle to the ongoing supply cut saga.
The Treasury market will remain open until 14:00 ET, but a quiet finish is expected, considering the 10-yr note holds just a slim loss, sending its yield higher by one basis point to 2.36%.
Today's economic data was limited to International Trade in Goods and advance Wholesale Inventories:
- The October International Trade in Goods report showed a $62.00 billion decline to follow last month's $56.10 billion drop
- October advance Wholesale Inventories showed a 0.4% decline (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) on top of a revised 0.1% uptick in September (from 0.2%)
- Russell 2000 +18.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +9.9% YTD
- S&P 500 +8.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +7.8% YTD
The stock market extended its winning streak to three consecutive weeks with the S&P 500 rising 1.4% to mark a fresh all-time high. Not to be outdone, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.5%), Nasdaq (+1.5%), and Russell 2000 (+2.3%) also registered weekly gains and marked new record highs during the holiday-shortened week.
Treasury yield have been on a big post-election run, but selling in the bond market eased up a little during the past week. The 10-yr yield edged up to 2.36% from last Friday's 2.34%. Interestingly, the modest uptick in the benchmark yield did not stop rate-sensitive sectors from receiving some inflows. Post-election laggards like telecom services (+4.6%) and utilities (+1.9%) had a better showing than the broader market during the past week.
Things were a bit more mixed on the cyclical side where only three sectors outperformed the broader market. The energy space (+2.2%) rallied as OPEC members continued playing ‘Deal or no Deal' while the consumer discretionary sector (+2.3%) benefitted from expectations for a better than feared holiday shopping season. Industrials (+2.3%) also outperformed, largely thanks to shares of Deere (DE), which surged in reaction to above-consensus results and an upbeat outlook.
It is worth noting that market participants received the policy minutes from the November FOMC meeting during the past week, but the release did not invite a particularly strong reaction. The minutes acknowledged that the Fed is ‘relatively close' to raising rates, which was universally received as a sign of a rate hike coming in December. The market had been anticipating this type of a statement, evidenced by the limited movement in the fed funds futures market, which projects a 93.5% implied likelihood of a rate hike in three weeks.
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Economic Data
from Briefing.com| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | 08:30 | International Trade in Goods | Oct | -$62.0B | NA | NA | -$56.1B | |
| Nov 25 | 08:30 | Advance Wholesale Inventories | Oct | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
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Technical Update
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE19152.14 +68.96 (+0.36%)
Volume: 45.89 Mil below average of 96.26 Mil
Range: 19093.72 - 19152.14
S&P500 INDEX
2213.35 +8.63 (+0.39%)
Volume: 261.97 Mil below average of 616.86 Mil
Range: 2206.27 - 2213.35
DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
9044.21 +44.17 (+0.49%)
Volume: 5.90 Mil below average of 17.44 Mil
Range: 8999.92 - 9044.21
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
5398.919922 +18.24 (+0.34%)
Volume: 768.07 Mil below average of 1847.14 Mil
Range: 5379.279785 - 5398.919922
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Market Internal
NYSE :Lower than average volume @ 810.3M vs 923.5M
Advancers outpaced Decliners(adv/dec): 1476M/1448M
New highs outpaced low(high/low): 259/36
NASDAQ :
Lower than average volume @ 1605.2M vs 1848.0M
Advancers outpaced Decliners(adv/dec): 1634M/1140M
New highs outpaced low(high/low): 363/34
Advancers outpaced Decliners by 1.20 to 1 on lower volumes 2415.5 ( -12.85%) than avg 2772 (-0.21%)
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX) :
12.34 -0.09 (-0.72%)
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Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.comBonds
Treasuries Vacillate in Shortened Session
- U.S. Treasuries were little-changed today as the S&P 500 traded up 0.39% to 2,213.3, an all-time high. The U.S. economic data releases were limited but wholesale inventories fell by 0.4% m/m in October, missing forecasts and the U.S. trade deficit for goods widened to $62.0 bln. These results will weigh on GDP growth in Q4. The second official estimate of Q3 growth comes out on Tuesday. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.28% to 101.42 today as traders continued to hesitate to buy the greenback after a very strong October/November run. Next week's U.S. calendar also includes ISM Manufacturing on Thursday and the November jobs report on Friday
- Yield Check:
- 2-yr: -1 bp to 1.11%
- 5-yr: unch at 1.83%
- 10-yr: +1 bp to 2.36%
- 30-yr: -1 bp to 3.01%
- News:
- The U.S.'s international trade deficit for goods was $62.0 bln for October, up from $56.1 bln in September
- The advance estimate of wholesale inventories for October was a contraction of 0.4%, missing the Briefing.com consensus for +0.2%. Wholesale inventories grew 0.2% in September
- The U.S. Markit Services PMI (flash reading) was 54.9 for November, unchanged from October
- Commodities:
- WTI crude: -4.17% to $45.96/bbl.
- Gold: -0.50% to $1,183.4/troy oz.
- Copper: +2.6785/lb.
- Currencies:
- EUR/USD: +0.51% to 1.0600
- USD/JPY: -0.60% to 113.01
- Week Ahead:
- Monday: (no scheduled market-moving events)
- Tuesday: Vice Fed Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) (07:45 ET); Q3 GDP and GDP Deflator -- Second Estimate (08:30 ET); September Case-Shiller 20-City Index (09:00 ET); New York Fed President Dudley (09:15 ET) (FOMC voter); November Consumer Confidence (10:00 ET)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 11/26 (07:00 ET); Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter in 2017) (08:00 ET); November ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET); October Personal Income and Spending (08:30 ET); October Core PCE Price Index (08:30 ET); Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) (09:15 ET); November Chicago PMI (09:45 ET); October Pending Home Sales (10:00 ET); Crude Inventories for the week ending (10:30 ET); Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter in 2016); November Fed's Beige Book (14:00 ET)
- Thursday: November Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET); Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 11/26 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 11/19 (08:30 ET); October Construction Spending (10:00 ET); November ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 ET); Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 11/26 (10:30 ET); November Auto and Truck Sales (14:00 ET)
- Friday: November Employment Situation Report (08:30 ET); Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) (12:30 ET)
Currencies
Commodities
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Preview: Week of 28 November - 2 December 2016
Economic Data
| Date | ET | Release | For | Actual | Briefing.com Forecast | Briefing.com Consensus | Prior | Revised From |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | 08:30 | GDP - Second Estimate | Q3 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | ||
| Nov 29 | 08:30 | GDP Deflator - Second Estimate | Q3 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | ||
| Nov 29 | 09:00 | Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Sep | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | ||
| Nov 29 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Nov | 101.0 | 100.0 | 98.6 | ||
| Nov 30 | 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 11/26 | NA | NA | -5.5% | ||
| Nov 30 | 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | Nov | 153K | 160K | 147K | ||
| Nov 30 | 08:30 | Personal Income | Oct | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | ||
| Nov 30 | 08:30 | Personal Spending | Oct | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||
| Nov 30 | 08:30 | Core PCE Price Index | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | ||
| Nov 30 | 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Nov | 51.4 | 52.0 | 50.6 | ||
| Nov 30 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Oct | +1.0% | +0.7% | 1.5% | ||
| Nov 30 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 11/26 | NA | NA | -1.255M | ||
| Nov 30 | 14:00 | Fed's Beige Book | Nov | NA | NA | NA | ||
| Dec 01 | 07:30 | Challenger Job Cuts | Nov | NA | NA | -24.7% | ||
| Dec 01 | 08:30 | Initial Claims | 11/26 | 255K | 253K | 251K | ||
| Dec 01 | 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 11/19 | NA | NA | 2043K | ||
| Dec 01 | 10:00 | Construction Spending | Oct | 0.3% | 0.6% | -0.4% | ||
| Dec 01 | 10:00 | ISM Index | Nov | 51.5 | 52.1 | 51.9 | ||
| Dec 01 | 10:30 | Natural Gas Inventories | 11/26 | NA | NA | -2 bcf | ||
| Dec 01 | 14:00 | Auto Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 5.12M | ||
| Dec 01 | 14:00 | Truck Sales | Nov | NA | NA | 9.18M | ||
| Dec 02 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls | Nov | 165K | 180K | 161K | ||
| Dec 02 | 08:30 | Nonfarm Private Payrolls | Nov | 155K | 170K | 142K | ||
| Dec 02 | 08:30 | Hourly Earnings | Nov | +0.2% | +0.2% | 0.4% | ||
| Dec 02 | 08:30 | Unemployment Rate | Nov | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | ||
| Dec 02 | 08:30 | Average Workweek | Nov | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
Other Events of Interest
Earnings
Commentary
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Direction for Week of 28 November - 2 December 2016: UP
Direction for Week of 28 November 2016: UP
Direction for Week of 28 November - 2 December 2016: UP
Direction for Week of 28 November 2016: UP
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