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Thursday, 3 November 2016

      

Market Summary

from Briefing.com

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Utilities, Financials
Weak: Technology, Health Care, Consumer Staples

Market Moving Factors  
  • Facebook (FB) slides on cautious outlook
  • U.K. High Court: British Parliament must vote on Article 50
  • Crude oil slips
  • Earnings reporting season rolls on
  • Heavily-weighted technology and health care underperform

Stocks Extend Losing Streak as Technology and Oil Weigh
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the Thursday affair on a lower note as the S&P 500 (-0.4%) retreated for the eighth consecutive session. Sellers remained more eager than buyers as falling oil prices, persistent political uncertainty, and weakness in the technology (-1.0%) and health care (-1.0%) sectors weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) finished behind the benchmark index (-0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%).
Equity indices stumbled in the opening hour as a reversal in crude oil and weakness in the influential technology sector (-1.0%) weighed on the broader market.
Oil began the day on a modestly higher note, rebounding from its recent losing streak. The energy component has been under pressure in recent days as investors reassess the previously announced OPEC supply freeze agreement and mull over some disappointing weekly inventory data. WTI crude slipped below the $45.00/bbl in the opening hour, finishing down 2.0% ($44.45/bbl; -$0.89). Today's retreat has the energy component down 8.8% so far this week.
Social media name Facebook (FB 119.95, -7.22, -5.7%) also weighed on investor sentiment as a disappointing revenue growth outlook masked a bottom-line beat. The F.A.N.G. name weighed on fellow technology bellwethers with Apple (AAPL 109.83, -1.19) and Alphabet (GOOG 762.13, -6.57) falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. Top-weighted Apple has now declined 7.1% since October 25 when the company released underwhelming quarterly results and guidance. Chipmaker Qualcomm (QCOM 66.98, -0.14) also finished down 0.2%.
The broader market extended its loss into midday as biotechnology tacked onto its recent losing streak. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 246.87, -7.46, -2.9%) extended its weekly loss to 5.2% as Allergan (AGN 188.82, -9.07, -4.6%) and Mylan (MYL 34.14, -2.53, -6.9%) weighed on the group. The two saw additional selling pressure when CNBC reported that the U.S. Department of Justice will be looking into the pricing practices of generic pharmaceutical companies.
The benchmark index carved out a session low in the final hour of trade as nine sectors ended in negative territory. Technology (-1.0%) and health care (-1.0%) finished at the bottom of the leaderboard while energy (+0.4%), utilities (+0.3%), and financials (+0.3%) finished with the only gains.
In the consumer discretionary space (-0.3%), 21st Century Fox (FOXA 27.74, +1.91) jumped 7.4% after beating bottom-line estimates for the quarter. The company bolstered the media sub-group, helping Dow component Disney (DIS 93.37, +1.46, +1.6%) finish at the top of the price-weighted average. On the flipside, Starbucks (SBUX 51.77, -1.21) fell 2.3% ahead of this evening's quarterly report.
The economically-sensitive financial sector (+0.3%) outperformed as life insurance names displayed relative strength. Prudential (PRU 86.67, +2.88) rallied 3.4% after topping analysts' estimates for the quarter. The space also gained on slight steepening in the yield curve. On the flipside, American International Group (AIG 58.15, -2.40) ended lower by 4.0% despite a bottom-line beat.
Treasuries finished on a mixed note as the long end of the curve underperformed. The yield on the 2-yr note finished flat (0.82%) while the yield on the 10-yr note finished the day up one basis point (1.81%).
Today's trading volume was above the average of 860 million as more than 880 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included October Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Claims, third quarter Productivity and Unit Labor Costs, Factory Orders for September, and ISM Services for October:
  • October Challenger Job Cuts were reported at 30,700, which compares to the prior month's reading of 44,300.
  • Initial claims for the week ending October 29 rose by 7,000 to 265,000 (Briefing.com consensus 256,000).
    • Continuing claims for the week ending October 22 decreased by 14,000 to 2.026 million.
  • Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.1% annual rate in the third quarter (Briefing.com consensus 1.8%). 
    • This was the first increase after three consecutive quarterly declines and was further underpinned by an upward revision to second quarter productivity to -0.2% from -0.6%.
  • Unit labor costs increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +1.2%) following a downwardly revised 3.9% increase (from 4.3%) in the second quarter.
  • New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.3% in September (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) on top of an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.2%) in August.
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 54.8 in October (Briefing.com consensus 55.8) from 57.1 in September. 
For more on these economic releases, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Economic Calendar page.
Tomorrow's economic data will include the 8:30 ET release of the September Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$38.5 billion) and the Employment Situation Report for October. The Briefing.com consensus expects the jobs report to show an increase of 175,000 in nonfarm payrolls.
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Economic Data

from Briefing.com
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Nov 03 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Oct -39.1% NA NA -24.7%
Nov 03 08:30 Initial Claims 10/29 265K 260K 256K 258K --
Nov 03 08:30 Continuing Claims 10/22 2026K NA NA 2040K 2039K
Nov 03 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 3.1% 1.7% 1.8% -0.2% -0.6%
Nov 03 08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q3 0.3% 1.3% 1.2% 3.9% 4.3%
Nov 03 10:00 Factory Orders Sep 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Nov 03 10:00 ISM Services Oct 54.8 56.0 55.8 57.1
Nov 03 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 10/29 54 bcf NA NA 73 bcf
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Technical Update

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
17959.64 -77.46 (-0.43%)
Volume: 88.61 Mil below average of 90.35 Mil
Range: 17931.89 - 18044.15


S&P500 INDEX
2097.94 -13.78 (-0.65%)
Volume: 641.50 Mil above average of 577.56 Mil
Range: 2094 - 2111.76


DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
8025.8 +17.42 (+0.22%)
Volume: 16.53 Mil above average of 16.15 Mil
Range: 8003.57 - 8067.37


NASDAQ COMPOSITE
5058.410156 -47.16 (-0.92%)
Volume: 2107.72 Mil above average of 1772.08 Mil
Range: 5053.52002 - 5115.060059


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Market Internal

NYSE :
Higher than average volume @ 891M vs 880.1M
Decliners outpaced Advancers(adv/dec): 1170M/1776M
New lows outpaced highs(high/low): 13/96

NASDAQ :
Higher than average volume @ 2100.7M vs 1752.3M
Decliners outpaced Advancers(adv/dec): 955M/1842M
New lows outpaced highs(high/low): 31/225

Decliners outpaced Advancers by 1.70 to 1 on higher volumes 2991.7 (+13.65%) than avg 2632 (+0.63%)

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX) :
19.32  +0.76 (+4.09%)


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Bonds, Currencies & Commodities

from Briefing.com

Bonds

Treasuries Rally on Risk Aversion and Cheaper Oil
  • U.S. Treasuries traded moderately higher today as the ADP Employment Change and weakness in global equity markets spurred safe-haven buying in government debt markets. Oil prices continued to decline today as the EIA reported a record build in crude stockpiles last week (14.4 mln bbl.) and the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.30% to 97.40. The FOMC voted 8-2 to keep monetary policy on hold today but continued to indicate that December will harbor a rate hike if the economy develops as expected. Thursday's session will feature the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for October, a strong indicator of the health of economic activity for the service sector which represents the vast majority of U.S. output. The S&P 500 is down 0.49% to 2,101.3
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -2 bps to 0.81%
    • 5-yr: -4 bps to 1.25%
    • 10-yr: -3 bps to 1.79%
    • 30-yr: -2 bps to 2.56%
  • News:
    • ADP reported that the U.S. economy added 147K nonfarm jobs in October, missing the Briefing.com consensus of 165K. ADP changed its model that produces the figures and this reduced the total amount of jobs created in 2016 by 15K. The September reading was revised up to 202K from the initial reading of 154K
      • Goods-producing: -18K
      • Service-providing: 165K
    • The FOMC voted 8-2 to keep interest rates on hold today. The two dissenters -- Kansas City Fed President George and Cleveland Fed President Mester -- favored a hike. The accompanying statement said that
      • ...the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
      • The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives
  • Commodities:
    • WTI crude: -2.51% to $45.50
    • Gold: +1.12% to $1,302.4/troy oz.
    • Copper: -0.31% to $2.221/lb.
  • Currencies:
    • EUR/USD: +0.32% to 1.1090
    • USD/JPY: -0.62% to 103.37
  • Data out Thursday:
    • October Challenger Job Cuts (07:30 ET)
    • Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 10/29 and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending 10/22 (08:30 ET)
    • Q3 Productivity – Preliminary (08:30 ET)
    • September Factory Orders (10:00 ET)
    • October ISM Services (10:00 ET)
    • Natural Gas Inventories for the week ending 10/29 (10:30 ET)

Currencies

Commodities

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Preview: Friday, 4 November 2016

Economic Data

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Nov 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 180K 175K 156K
Nov 04 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Oct 175K 170K 167K
Nov 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Nov 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct 5.0% 4.9% 5.0%
Nov 04 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 34.4 34.4 34.4
Nov 04 08:30 Trade Balance Sep -$37.8B -$38.5B -$40.7B

Other Events of Interest

Earnings



Commentary

Internals show bearish strength, except the Dec/Adv showing a bit of weakness. VIX and bonds show that there is still increasing fear. With SPX down for the last 8 sessions, we may just see a pull back today.
Direction: DOWN

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