Pages

Monday, 15 Jun 2015 - AMC

      

Market Summary

from Briefing.com

Industry Watch

Strong: Energy, Telecom Services, Utilities
Weak: Health Care, Technology, Industrials, Materials

Market Moving Factors  
  • Weekend talks between Greece and creditors go nowhere with Greek officials resisting requests for pension and wage cuts: Bunds and Treasuries rally
  • S&P 500 slips below 100-day moving average (2,088)
S&P 500 Slips Below 100-Day Moving Average
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began the new trading week on a cautious note with the S&P 500 sliding below its 100-day moving average (2,089). The benchmark index lost 0.5% and registered its second consecutive decline.

Equities notched their session lows during the opening hour after Sunday's talks between Greek officials and the country's creditors broke down without any progress. This left the situation essentially unchanged since last week with the two sides remaining at odds over cuts to state pensions/wages and the appropriate VAT levels.

The lack of progress between the two sides fueled the opening retreat, but the S&P 500 was able to cut its loss in half by midday. Equities held near their afternoon levels after Germany's Suddeutsche Zeitung reported that Eurozone officials have agreed on a plan B in the event Greece is unable to come to terms with its creditors. According to the report, a special summit will be held on Friday night if this week passes without a deal. Furthermore, it is expected that capital controls will be imposed, but enforcement of those measures would be in the hands of the Greek parliament.

For the second day in a row, the lack of progress led to a widening in European yield spreads with demand for German bunds driving their yield down a basis point to 0.82% while Italy's 10-yr yield jumped 11 basis points to 2.33%. Similarly, Spain's 10-yr yield increased ten basis points to 2.38% as European investors showed safe-haven demand.

That safe-have demand kept Treasuries in the green throughout the day. The 10-yr note settled below its high, but still ended in the green with its yield down four basis points at 2.36%.

Nine of ten sectors registered losses with the top-weighted technology space (-0.6%) struggling throughout the day. The sector was pressured by some of its largest components like Microsoft (MSFT 45.48, -0.49), Oracle (ORCL 43.74, -0.60), and Facebook (FB 80.71, -0.82) while high-beta chipmakers fared relatively well even though the PHLX Semiconductor Index shed 0.2%. Micron (MU 24.24, -0.89) and SanDisk (SNDK 64.18, -1.92) kept the index near the broader market after both names were downgraded at Morgan Stanley. Micron lost 3.5% while SanDisk surrendered 2.9%.

Elsewhere, industrials (-0.8%) and materials (-0.7%) underperformed while the remaining cyclical sectors ended near the broader market. Notably, the consumer discretionary space (-0.5%) settled in-line with the S&P 500, which masked relative strength among homebuilders. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.94, +0.04) added 0.2% after Standard Pacific (SPF 8.82, +0.46) and Ryland Group (RYL 45.02, +2.23) agreed to a merger of equals.

Meanwhile, the countercyclical side looked a little better with the health care sector (+0.03%) eking out a slim gain. Similarly, the utilities sector (-0.2%) finished ahead of the broader market while telecom services (-0.6%) and consumer staples (-0.7%) underperformed.

Today's trading volume was below average with roughly 715 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization, and NAHB Housing Market Index:
  • The Empire Manufacturing Survey for June registered a reading of -2.0, which was below the prior month's reading of 3.1 and below the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which was pegged at 6.0 
  • Industrial production decreased 0.2% in May after declining a downwardly revised 0.5% (from -0.3%) in April while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
    • Manufacturing production declined 0.2% in May after increasing 0.1% in April, which was the first decline since a 0.2% drop in February 
    • Capacity utilization hit 78.1% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 78.3% 
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for June rose to 59 from 54 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 56 
Tomorrow, May Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.10 million) and Building Permits (consensus 1.10 million) will both be released at 8:30 ET.
  • Nasdaq Composite +6.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +4.8% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +1.2% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.2% YTD
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Economic Data

from Briefing.com
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jun -2.0 5.0 6.0 3.1
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May -0.2% 0.0% 0.3% -0.5% -0.3%
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 78.1% 78.2% 78.3% 78.3% 78.2%
Jun 15 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 59 55 56 54
Jun 15 16:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr $53.9B NA NA $25.6B $17.6B
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Technical Update

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
17791.17 -107.67 (-0.60%)
Volume: 91.92 Mil below average of 95.40 Mil
Range: 17698.42 - 17890.76


NASDAQ COMPOSITE
5055.549805 +25.58 (+0.51%)
Volume: 1654.82 Mil below average of 1748.42 Mil
Range: 5022.560059 - 5063.060059


S&P500 INDEX
2084.43 -9.68 (-0.46%)
Volume: 504.79 Mil below average of 514.42 Mil
Range: 2072.49 - 2091.34

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Market Internal

NYSE :
Lower than average volume @ 734.1M vs 735.836M
Decliners outpaced Advancers(adv/dec): 1091M/1992M
New lows outpaced highs(high/low): 46/114

NASDAQ :
Lower than average volume @ 1734.8M vs 1754.262M
Decliners outpaced Advancers(adv/dec): 1161M/1658M
New highs outpaced low(high/low): 106/58

Decliners outpaced Advancers by 1.62 to 1 on lower volumes 2468.9 ( -0.85%) than avg 2490 (+0.05%)

VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX) :
15.39 1.61(11.68%)

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Bonds, Currencies & Commodities

from Briefing.com

Bonds

Treasuries Finish Higher but off Best Levels
  • The U.S. Treasury complex rallied early in the session on global risk aversion over Greece. The weak Empire Manufacturing and Industrial Production data pushed the rally further, but governments backed off after equities began to recover and the NAHB Housing Market Index easily beat expectations
  • Yield Check:
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 0.70%
    • 5-yr: -4 bps to 1.70%
    • 10-yr: -4 bps to 2.36%
    • 30-yr: -2 bps to 3.09%
  • News:
    • The index measuring factory activity in the New York region declined slightly but widely missed expectations in May, reading -2.0. The Briefing.com consensus was for 6.0 and the prior reading was 3.1
      • The forward looking components were even worse than the headline number, with unfilled orders up to -4.81 from -11.46 in April and new orders down to -2.12 from 3.85 
    • Industrial production decreased 0.2% in May after declining a downwardly revised 0.5% (from -0.3%) in April. The Briefing.com Consensus expected industrial production to increase 0.3%
      • Industrial Production has not increased on a m/m basis since November 2014 
      • The decline in production matched the downbeat regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys.The pullback in manufacturing would have been much larger if not for a continued surge in motor vehicles and parts production. Production from the auto industry rose 1.7% in May after increasing 2.0% in April
      • Higher oil prices helped, but didn't end, the downward trend in mining production. Production declined 0.3% in May after declining 1.3% in April
    • Capacity Utilization declined to 78.1% in May from 78.3% in April. The Briefing.com consensus was 78.3%
    • The NAHB Housing Market Index blew by estimates, rising to 59 in June from 54 in May. The Briefing.com consensus was 56
    • German newspaper Suddeutsche reported that an emergency plan for Greece is being drawn up by European officials. The plan is said to include capital controls

Currencies

  • The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.08% to 94.90, giving back its overnight rally after U.S. Industrial Production missed estimates (Actual -0.2% vs. the Briefing.com consensus of +0.3%)
  • EUR/USD: -0.02% to $1.1257 
    • The ZEW Institute's Index of Expectations for Economic Growth for the eurozone in June will be released tonight
  • GBP/USD: +0.13% to $1.5581
    • The May CPI for the U.K. will be released tonight
  • USD/JPY: +0.04%to 123.43
  • USD/CHF: +0.51% to 0.9328
  • USD/CAD: +0.02% to 1.2316
  • AUD/USD: +0.42% to $0.7764
  • NZD/USD: +0.09% to 0.6995

Commodities

  • The dollar saw broad weakening after a mid-morning high near 95.4, which gave commodities broad support going into the close
  • The index has sold off in most recent trade, and is now slightly negative at -0.2% to 94.8
  • Crude has traded red all session, as OPEC production concerns outweighed a weakening dollar amidst a lack of positive catalysts. The July contract closed -0.6% to $59.55/barrel
  • Natural gas strength went unchallenged throughout the afternoon, as the commodity extended large morning gains.
  • Supply concerns emanating from a developing storm in the Gulf Coast, in addition to periphal drivers that included warmer weather forecasts in the Eastern US, drove Nat gas to close up 5.1% to $2.89/MMBtu
  • Precious metals lifted off the flat line in mid-morning trade, and supported by a falling dollar index closed modestly positive.
  • August gold closed +0.5% at $1185.60/oz and July silver ended +1.5% to $16.08/oz
  • Copper saw no positive lift from a weakening dollar, as sentiment remained focused on recent negative macro-econ data trends out of China. Copper closed -1.1% to $2.65/lb

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Preview: Tuesday, 16 Jun 2015

Economic Data

Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Forecast Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 16 08:30 Housing Starts May 1065K 1100K 1165K 1135K
Jun 16 08:30 Building Permits May 1100K 1100K 1140K 1143K

Other Events of Interest

Earnings



Commentary

Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)